Big signal!Financial outlook after the holiday: liquidity is expected to remain abundant, monetary policy to the front force…Where do A shares go?
The capital market will soon open after the Spring Festival. Abundant liquidity is expected to create a good capital environment for the capital market.Although the reverse repo funds of the People’s Bank of China will be withdrawn naturally after the Spring Festival, the customary large amount of cash withdrawal after the Festival will also greatly increase the total liquidity of the banking system, and the large amount of Treasury bonds maturing in the first week after the Festival will also increase some liquidity.Some analysis points out that, on the whole, as is common after the Spring Festival, the market capital surface after the festival will be more relaxed than before, and the liquidity supply is relatively more.Hong Kong stocks in the year of the Tiger after the opening of the full market, to the opening of A shares injected A shot in the arm.Hong Kong stocks opened the year of the Tiger on February 4, with the Hang Seng index surging 3.24%, led by the auto, consumer and financial sectors.Hong Kong stocks on the first trading day of the year of the Tiger, also let the market for next Monday’s opening of A shares full of expectations.Sufficient liquidity supply to protect the smooth “New Year” of the capital since this year, the steady monetary policy forward force, protect the market funds smooth “New Year” intention is obvious.On January 17, the central bank launched a 700 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the open market to hedge short-term factors such as the peak tax period in January and cash release ahead of the Spring Festival.More importantly, the two major policy interest rates were cut by 10 basis points, the release of monetary policy ahead of the easing signal.In addition, in order to maintain stable liquidity before the Spring Festival, the CENTRAL bank has also stepped up inter-festival liquidity supply. It has carried out 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations every day since January 17 and 14-day reverse repurchase operations since January 24, fully meeting the liquidity demand of the market.The timely replenishment of liquidity supply during the Spring Festival and the reduction of policy interest rate jointly promoted the stable operation of the new level of market interest rate anchoring, reflecting the rapid response of monetary policy transmission mechanism from policy interest rate to market interest rate.Data shows that DR007 moves around the lower open market operation 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 2.10%, the average value of DR007 since January 17 is 2.12%, and the money market interest rate center moves down accordingly.The market generally believes that the central bank’s liquidity care before the holiday will continue until after the holiday, so as to reflect the forward-looking, stable, targeted, effective and independent monetary policy.Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, pointed out at a recent press conference of the State Information Office that the current key goal is stability, and the policy requirement is to exert force.We need to open the monetary policy toolbox wider to keep aggregate stability and avoid a credit collapse.From the perspective of liquidity after the Spring Festival, cash withdrawal after the Spring Festival will greatly increase the liquidity of the banking system.Although the reverse repo funds will be recovered when they mature after the Spring Festival, a large amount of cash withdrawal will greatly increase the total liquidity of the banking system, and the large amount of Treasury bonds maturing in the first week after the Spring Festival will also increase some liquidity.Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst at Everbright Securities, told the Securities Times that the central bank’s open market operations are precise and forward-looking.Spring Festival cash release and cash withdrawal after the holiday will cause short-term disturbance to the liquidity of the banking system.In order to smooth out the above fluctuations, the Central bank used open market reverse repurchase tools, flexibly arranged the number and duration of operations, and accurately maintained the balance of fund supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the Central Bank increased the operation scale of reverse repurchase and launched the 14-day reverse repurchase tool, which made the liquidity of the Spring Festival not tight.After the Spring Festival, this part of reverse repurchase gradually matures, which makes liquidity not loose after the festival.After the Lunar New Year holiday last year, we also faced the mass maturity of reverse repos in the open market, but the interest rate in the money market did not fluctuate significantly.After the Spring Festival this year, the market interest rate represented by DR007 is still operating firmly around OMO interest rate, which will not only stabilize the expectations of investors in the financial market, but also help ease liquidity constraints faced by banks in the process of asset expansion, and more conducive to laying a solid foundation for deepening the reform of interest rate liberalization.”Zhang said.Mingming, co-chief economist of Citic Securities and deputy director of the Research Institute, recently said that the Central bank has a clear attitude to protect the stability of capital by releasing a large amount of inter-festival funds and initiating inter-Spring Festival liquidity arrangements before the Holiday. The liquidity gap will be greatly improved after the holiday, and monetary policy is still in the easing cycle.As a result, funds may tighten in February at some points, such as tax payments and government debt payments, but it will not change the overall downward trend in interest rates.Sun Guofeng, director of the central bank’s monetary policy department, said in a recent article that looking ahead to 2022, the prudent monetary policy will be flexible and moderate, and the cross-cycle adjustment will be stepped up.The economy is under downward pressure, and stability is in itself the best way to achieve progress. We need to focus on increasing support for the real economy and promote stability through progress. This can be reflected in three main forces.We need to take the initiative to optimize the economic structure.To rely on the forward force, forward-looking operation, walk in front of the market curve.”Monetary policy will use a combination of monetary policy tools to provide liquidity at an appropriate time, smooth out short-term fluctuations in liquidity in a timely manner, do a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment of liquidity, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and promote the smooth operation of money market interest rates.”Sun Guofeng said.Copyright Statement All original content of securities Times platform, without written authorization, any units and individuals shall not be reproduced.We reserve the right to investigate the relevant subject of legal responsibility.For reprinting and cooperation, please contact securities Times Assistant, wechat ID:SecuritiesTimesEND Click on the keyword to view the potential hope series of in-depth reports | column of stock affairs | investment little Red book | E company investigation | times meeting room | shady investigation | top ten stars private placement interview | New Year’s walk to the grassroots | A-share Group Gathering | Maotai former executive bribery details exposed | 1.2 billion price fine paid,Amazon rises 1.26 trillion yuan in one day, setting a new US stock record; Shenzhen has 2 new confirmed cases, bringing the total number of cases to 13; international oil prices have soared for 7 weeks in a row, hitting a 7-year high; Hong Kong stocks have surged 2%, Alibaba and Baidu have increased more than 5%; outside markets have plummeted.Nasdaq plummets nearly 4%, meta-universe falls more than 26%! Shenzhen +3, 11 cases in total!Both were found in close contacts and key populations